Odds Uncovered

By our Serie-A Handicapper; Tony L.

When I first got into Handicapping two very sharp guys told me, you let the Oddsmaker make the numbers and you just assume he's putting up the right number. You pick a side. If you like that side, you just have to bet as much as you can based on what you see. The right number is relative, you'll always be able to find a better price somewhere.

Now the question is "How much can you bet at those odds", is it worth it to bet at that price? If you're using the bookmakers odds as a way of determining the outcome, you really shouldn't be gambling to make a living.

In Gambling, the odds on display are not reflective of the true chances that the event will occur, they are amounts that the bookmaker will pay out on winning bets. In calculating his odds the bookmaker will have included a profit margin, which essentially means that the payout to a successful bettor is less than what is represented by the true chance of the event occurring.

In a football match, for example, the true chances of each of the teams winning based on their relative abilities may be 70% for one team and 30% for the other. These are the relative probabilities of the team winning and are essentially the bookmaker's 'odds' multiplied by 100 for convenience. The total of these two percentages is 100, thus representing a fair 'book'.

The true odds of winning for each of the two teams is 3-7 and 7-3 respectively. In order to generate a profit on the wagers accepted by the bookmaker he may decide to increase the values to 80% and 40% for the two teams, representing odds of 1-4 and 3-2. These values now total 120%, meaning that the book has an overround of 20 (120 − 100). This value of 20 represents the amount of profit for the bookmaker if he accepts bets in the correct proportions on each of the teams. The art of bookmaking is that he will take in, for example, £130 in wagers and only pay £100 back (including stakes) no matter which team wins.

Best Wishes,

Tony

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Odds Uncovered